Mansfield Town vs Peterborough

Mansfield Town

Preview

15:00

Peterborough

3/13/2027

League One · Round 35One Call Stadium

Big match

49%

Mansfield Town

model favours

49%24%27%

1–1

likely score

55%

over 2.5 goals

57%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Mansfield Town49%

×Draw24%

Peterborough27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mansfield TownExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.20

Mansfield Town

1.68

Peterborough

1.20

Mansfield Town creates 40% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 40 away

1.76

creates per match

1.20

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Mansfield Town

1.76

Peterborough

1.20

allows per match

Mansfield Town

1.20

Peterborough

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw

73%

Mansfield Town or Peterborough

76%

Draw or Peterborough

51%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

26%

Peterborough wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

81%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

50%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

24%

Peterborough 1+ goals

70%

Peterborough 2+ goals

34%

Peterborough 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

64%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.20 · 25 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.76 + Peterborough defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.68

Peterborough attack 1.20 + Mansfield Town defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mansfield Town scores more

49%

level

24%

Peterborough scores more

27%

Mansfield Town at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Similar styles

Mansfield Town

Balanced

Peterborough

Balanced

44%PossessionBiggest gap57%

72%Pass accuracy80%

11.8Shots12.3

1.68xG1.66

Mansfield TownPeterborough

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2

Mansfield Town

2

Draws

1

Peterborough

Avg goals: 3.2BTTS: 60%

0–01–24–23–02–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Town

WDWWD

Peterborough

LDLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff