Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mansfield Town vs Lincoln — League #46 2026

Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Lincoln
Lincoln
R. Menayese 72'
T. Archibald 62'
A. Scully 49'
J. Soule 31'
10/6/2020League #46League #46 · Group Stage - 6One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Mansfield Town23%
×Draw20%
Lincoln56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mansfield Town
1.36
Lincoln
2.20

Lincoln creates 62% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Mansfield Town
1.40
Lincoln
2.00

allows per match

Mansfield Town
2.40
Lincoln
1.33

finishing

Mansfield Town+0.00on par
Lincoln+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Lincoln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw
44%
Mansfield Town or Lincoln
80%
Draw or Lincoln
77%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+
10%
Lincoln wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals
74%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
39%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
16%
Lincoln 1+ goals
89%
Lincoln 2+ goals
64%
Lincoln 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
29%
Lincoln (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Lincoln away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.40 + Lincoln defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Lincoln attack 2.00 + Mansfield Town defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Mansfield Town scores more
23%
level
20%
Lincoln scores more
56%

Lincoln at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
T. ArchibaldLincolnLincoln · M
7.6

Match Events

31'
J. Soule
34'
James Perch
49'
A. Scully↳ A. Edun
55'
Kellan Gordon
55'
Adetayo Edun
57'
A. Smith← J. Perch
57'
N. Maynard← J. Bowery
58'
S. McLaughlin← T. Sinclair
61'
Theodore Archibald
62'
T. Archibald
72'
R. Menayese↳ M. Benning
90'
H. Cann← A. Edun

Possession

45%Mansfield

Shots

15Mansfield

Pass accuracy

48%Mansfield

Statistics

MansfieldLincoln
Overview
45%Possession55%
15Total Shots19
4Corners7
15Fouls14
Shots
15Total Shots19
6On Target6
5Off Target7
4Blocked6
7Inside Box10
8Outside Box9
Passing
45%Possession55%
396Total Passes492
287Accurate Passes381
72%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
15Fouls14
2Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

League #46: Mansfield Town 1–3 Lincoln

Lincoln beat Mansfield Town 3-1 in League #46 on October 6, 2020.

Goals: J. Soule (31'), A. Scully (49'), T. Archibald (62'), R. Menayese (72').

Lincoln controlled possession (55%) and registered 19 shots to 15.

The match was played at One Call Stadium in Mansfield, Nottinghamshire.