Lincoln 1–1 Mansfield Town: Result & Stats

Lincoln

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Mansfield Town

S. Bradley 18'

N. Moriah-Welsh 82'

8/30/2025

League One · Round 6LNER stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Lincoln49%

×Draw24%

Mansfield Town27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LincolnExpected goals in this matchMansfield Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.16

Lincoln

1.65

Mansfield Town

1.16

Lincoln creates 42% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

2.01

creates per match

0.98

1.33

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Lincoln

2.01

Mansfield Town

0.98

allows per match

Lincoln

1.33

Mansfield Town

1.28

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Lincoln+0.26scores more

Mansfield Town+0.11scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Mansfield Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw

73%

Lincoln or Mansfield Town

76%

Draw or Mansfield Town

51%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+

26%

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals

81%

Lincoln 2+ goals

49%

Lincoln 3+ goals

23%

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

69%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

32%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)

64%

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.33 · 11 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.28 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 2.01 + Mansfield Town defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.65

Mansfield Town attack 0.98 + Lincoln defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lincoln scores more

49%

level

24%

Mansfield Town scores more

27%

Lincoln at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

N. Moriah-Welsh

Mansfield Town · M

7.5

Match Events

18'

S. Bradley↳ J. Collins

30'

Sonny Bradley

35'

Freddie Draper

37'

A. Jackson← F. Draper

46'

S. McLaughlin← M. Dickov

46'

B. Cargill← F. Blake-Tracy

46'

R. Hendry← L. Bolton

46'

D. Dwyer← A. Lewis

52'

Tom Bayliss

53'

Reeco Hackett-Fairchild

55'

58'

59'

64'

65'

F. Okoronkwo← R. Hackett-Fairchild

65'

N. Moriah-Welsh←

78'

O. Thorn← R. Street

79'

George Wickens

79'

I. Varfolomeev← T. Bayliss

82'

N. Moriah-Welsh↳ K. Knoyle

87'

Baily Cargill

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LincolnMansfield

Overview

35%Possession65%

7Total Shots14

3Corners11

14Fouls16

Shots

7Total Shots14

2On Target4

5Off Target5

0Blocked5

3Inside Box10

4Outside Box4

Passing

35%Possession65%

258Total Passes453

174Accurate Passes373

67%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls16

6Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

4Offsides0