Mansfield Town 1–3 Lincoln: Result & Stats

Mansfield Town

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Lincoln

A. Potter 6'

M. Green 90+5'

O. Palmer 79'

E. Whitehouse 40'

8/29/2017

League #46 · Group Stage - 3One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Mansfield Town23%

×Draw20%

Lincoln56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mansfield TownExpected goals in this matchLincoln

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

2.20

Mansfield Town

1.36

Lincoln

2.20

Lincoln creates 62% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

1.40

creates per match

2.00

2.40

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Mansfield Town

1.40

Lincoln

2.00

allows per match

Mansfield Town

2.40

Lincoln

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Lincoln+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Lincoln →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw

44%

Mansfield Town or Lincoln

80%

Draw or Lincoln

77%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

10%

Lincoln wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

74%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

39%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

16%

Lincoln 1+ goals

89%

Lincoln 2+ goals

64%

Lincoln 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

29%

Lincoln (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Lincoln away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.40 + Lincoln defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Lincoln attack 2.00 + Mansfield Town defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Mansfield Town scores more

23%

level

20%

Lincoln scores more

56%

Lincoln at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

A. Potter↳ J. Spencer

40'

E. Whitehouse↳ S. Long

65'

M. Bostwick← A. Woodyard

65'

N. Eardley← S. Habergham

72'

W. Atkinson← J. Thomas

77'

M. Green← J. Maguire-Drew

79'

O. Palmer↳ S. Long

82'

C. Hamilton← A. MacDonald

82'

D. Rose← J. Spencer

90+5'

M. Green↳ B. Knott

Mansfield

Lincoln

1

Farman

5

Waterfall

3

▼

Habergham

2

A

Long

15

Dickie

30

▼

Woodyard

11

A

Knott

4

⚽

Whitehous

26

Anderson

8

⚽

Palmer

14

▼

12

5

14

4

16

19

20

▼

Thomas

21

Sterling-

7

▼

MacDonald

17

⚽

Potter

15

A

▼

Spencer

Manager: S. Evans

72'▲W. Atkinson←▼J. Thomas

82'▲C. Hamilton←▼A. MacDonald

82'▲D. Rose←▼J. Spencer

Mansfield Town substitutes

11Atkinson22Hamilton32Rose1Logan2Bennett3Benning26Byrom

Manager: D. Cowley

65'▲M. Bostwick←▼A. Woodyard

65'▲N. Eardley←▼S. Habergham

77'▲M. Green←▼J. Maguire-Drew

Lincoln substitutes

16Bostwick23Eardley10Green9Rhead21Vickers25Raggett28Arnold