Mansfield Town 2–1 Gillingham: Result & Stats

Mansfield Town

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Gillingham

S. McLaughlin 80'

D. Keillor-Dunn 77'

T. Dieng 19'

4/20/2024

League Two · Round 45One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Mansfield Town47%

×Draw26%

Gillingham27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mansfield TownExpected goals in this matchGillingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.06

Mansfield Town

1.48

Gillingham

1.06

Mansfield Town creates 40% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 101 away

1.60

creates per match

0.90

1.22

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Mansfield Town

1.60

Gillingham

0.90

allows per match

Mansfield Town

1.22

Gillingham

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Gillingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw

73%

Mansfield Town or Gillingham

74%

Draw or Gillingham

53%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

23%

Gillingham wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

77%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

43%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

19%

Gillingham 1+ goals

65%

Gillingham 2+ goals

29%

Gillingham 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

63%

Gillingham (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.22 · 139 matches

Gillingham away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.35 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.60 + Gillingham defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.48

Gillingham attack 0.90 + Mansfield Town defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mansfield Town scores more

47%

level

26%

Gillingham scores more

27%

Mansfield Town at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

40

D. Keillor-Dunn

Mansfield Town · M

8.2

Match Events

19'

T. Dieng

30'

Hiram Boateng

56'

O. Clarke← A. Lewis

56'

D. Keillor-Dunn← G. Maris

56'

S. Quinn← H. Boateng

59'

R. McKenzie← J. Williams

64'

Dom Jefferies

70'

S. Ogie← D. Jefferies

70'

J. Walker← C. Mahoney

76'

O. Hawkins← J. Andrews

76'

S. Malone← M. Clark

77'

D. Keillor-Dunn↳ T. Nichols

80'

S. McLaughlin↳ S. Quinn

85'

C. MacDonald← J. Gale

86'

Max Ehmer

90+2'

G. Cooper← S. McLaughlin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MansfieldGillingham

Overview

61%Possession39%

22Total Shots7

8Corners5

4Fouls13

Shots

22Total Shots7

7On Target2

4Off Target2

11Blocked3

11Inside Box6

11Outside Box1

Passing

61%Possession39%

540Total Passes350

435Accurate Passes229

81%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

4Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1