Gillingham 0–2 Mansfield Town: Result & Stats

Gillingham

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Mansfield Town

G. Lapslie 33'

L. Akins 17'

9/17/2022

League Two · Round 10MEMS Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Gillingham35%

×Draw28%

Mansfield Town37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GillinghamExpected goals in this matchMansfield Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.17

Gillingham

1.14

Mansfield Town

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 141 away

1.12

creates per match

1.25

1.09

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Gillingham

1.12

Mansfield Town

1.25

allows per match

Gillingham

1.09

Mansfield Town

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gillingham+0.00on par

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Mansfield Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw

63%

Gillingham or Mansfield Town

72%

Draw or Mansfield Town

65%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+

14%

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals

68%

Gillingham 2+ goals

32%

Gillingham 3+ goals

11%

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

69%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

33%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)

49%

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.09 · 102 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.16 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.12 + Mansfield Town defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.14

Mansfield Town attack 1.25 + Gillingham defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Gillingham scores more

35%

level

28%

Mansfield Town scores more

37%

Mansfield Town at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

G. Lapslie

Mansfield Town · F

8.3

Match Events

17'

L. Akins↳ K. Gordon

33'

G. Lapslie↳ A. Hartigan

46'

R. Law← H. Mnoga

61'

J. Green← H. Adelakun

61'

J. Gbode← L. Walker

66'

Riley Harbottle

73'

A. MacDonald← B. Reeves

73'

J. Perch← R. Harbottle

78'

Joseph Gbode

80'

J. Bowery← K. Gordon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GillinghamMansfield

Overview

45%Possession55%

6Total Shots15

5Corners10

13Fouls10

Shots

6Total Shots15

2On Target3

4Off Target8

0Blocked4

3Inside Box14

3Outside Box1

Passing

45%Possession55%

266Total Passes318

118Accurate Passes181

44%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1