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Mansfield Town vs Forest Green — League Two 2018

Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Forest Green
Forest Green
3/23/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 28One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Mansfield Town40%
×Draw26%
Forest Green34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mansfield Town
1.43
Forest Green
1.29

Mansfield Town creates 11% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 113 away

creates per match

Mansfield Town
1.64
Forest Green
1.42

allows per match

Mansfield Town
1.16
Forest Green
1.22

finishing

Mansfield Town+0.00on par
Forest Green+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Forest Green →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw
66%
Mansfield Town or Forest Green
74%
Draw or Forest Green
60%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+
19%
Forest Green wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals
76%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
42%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
17%
Forest Green 1+ goals
72%
Forest Green 2+ goals
37%
Forest Green 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
54%
Forest Green (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.16 · 134 matches

Forest Green away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.22 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.64 + Forest Green defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.43

Forest Green attack 1.42 + Mansfield Town defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mansfield Town scores more
40%
level
26%
Forest Green scores more
34%

Mansfield Town at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Mansfield Town 0–0 Forest Green

Mansfield Town and Forest Green drew 0-0 in League Two on March 23, 2021.

The match was played at One Call Stadium in Mansfield, Nottinghamshire.