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Forest Green vs Mansfield Town — League Two 2018

Forest Green
Forest Green
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
2/10/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 32The Bolt New Lawn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Forest Green34%
×Draw28%
Mansfield Town39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Forest Green
1.15
Mansfield Town
1.26

Mansfield Town creates 10% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 136 away

creates per match

Forest Green
1.17
Mansfield Town
1.38

allows per match

Forest Green
1.15
Mansfield Town
1.13

finishing

Forest Green+0.00on par
Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forest Green ↓

Mansfield Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Forest Green or draw
61%
Forest Green or Mansfield Town
72%
Draw or Mansfield Town
66%

Winning margin

Forest Green wins by 2+
14%
Mansfield Town wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Forest Green 1+ goals
68%
Forest Green 2+ goals
32%
Forest Green 3+ goals
11%
Mansfield Town 1+ goals
72%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
36%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Forest Green (draw refunded)
46%
Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forest Green at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.15 · 110 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forest Green attack 1.17 + Mansfield Town defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Mansfield Town attack 1.38 + Forest Green defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Forest Green scores more
34%
level
28%
Mansfield Town scores more
39%

Mansfield Town at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Forest Green 0–4 Mansfield Town

Mansfield Town beat Forest Green 4-0 in League Two on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at The Bolt New Lawn in Nailsworth, Gloucestershire.