Mansfield Town 0–0 Exeter City: Result & Stats

Mansfield Town

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Exeter City

2/7/2026

League One · Round 31One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Mansfield Town48%

×Draw22%

Exeter City29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mansfield TownExpected goals in this matchExeter City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.43

Mansfield Town

1.90

Exeter City

1.43

Mansfield Town creates 33% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.77

creates per match

1.02

1.84

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Mansfield Town

1.77

Exeter City

1.02

allows per match

Mansfield Town

1.84

Exeter City

2.03

-0.04on par

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Mansfield Town-0.04on par

Exeter City+0.08on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Exeter City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw

71%

Mansfield Town or Exeter City

78%

Draw or Exeter City

52%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

27%

Exeter City wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

85%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

56%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

29%

Exeter City 1+ goals

76%

Exeter City 2+ goals

42%

Exeter City 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

62%

Exeter City (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.84 · 11 matches

Exeter City away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.03 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.77 + Exeter City defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.90

Exeter City attack 1.02 + Mansfield Town defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mansfield Town scores more

48%

level

22%

Exeter City scores more

29%

Mansfield Town at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Whitworth

Exeter City · G

8.9

Match Events

20'

Adedeji Oshilaja

46'

K. Knoyle← R. Sweeney

46'

E. Turns← J. Fitzwater

57'

L. Bolton← O. Irow

57'

V. Adeboyejo← R. Oates

58'

62'

68'

70'

74'

J. Magennis← T. Tuterov

74'

R. Cole← J. Aitchison

77'

Liam Oakes

80'

S. Cox← J. Wareham

83'

S. McLaughlin← W. Evans

88'

Josh Magennis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MansfieldExeter

Overview

48%Possession52%

13Total Shots8

1.57Expected Goals (xG)0.28

4Corners4

9Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots8

5On Target2

5Off Target3

3Blocked3

7Inside Box5

6Outside Box3

Passing

48%Possession52%

448Total Passes499

344Accurate Passes405

77%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls9

1Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2