Mansfield Town 2–1 Exeter City: Result & Stats

Mansfield Town

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Exeter City

M. Longstaff 67'

F. Rawson 34'

M. Jay 90+5'

3/4/2022

League Two · Round 35One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Mansfield Town41%

×Draw25%

Exeter City33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mansfield TownExpected goals in this matchExeter City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.29

Mansfield Town

1.46

Exeter City

1.29

Mansfield Town creates 13% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 97 away

1.60

creates per match

1.35

1.22

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Mansfield Town

1.60

Exeter City

1.35

allows per match

Mansfield Town

1.22

Exeter City

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Exeter City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Exeter City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw

67%

Mansfield Town or Exeter City

75%

Draw or Exeter City

59%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

20%

Exeter City wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

77%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

43%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

18%

Exeter City 1+ goals

72%

Exeter City 2+ goals

37%

Exeter City 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

55%

Exeter City (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.22 · 139 matches

Exeter City away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.60 + Exeter City defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.46

Exeter City attack 1.35 + Mansfield Town defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mansfield Town scores more

41%

level

25%

Exeter City scores more

33%

Mansfield Town at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

N. Bishop

Mansfield Town · G

8.2

Match Events

34'

F. Rawson

62'

S. Nombe← K. Phillips

67'

M. Longstaff

74'

J. Sparkes← J. Grounds

78'

O. Zanzala← J. Coley

79'

G. Lapslie← M. Longstaff

83'

K. Wallace← S. Quinn

90'

J. Perch← R. Oates

90+5'

M. Jay

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MansfieldExeter

Overview

51%Possession49%

9Total Shots16

4Corners4

6Fouls9

Shots

9Total Shots16

3On Target10

4Off Target3

2Blocked3

5Inside Box13

4Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

362Total Passes362

217Accurate Passes220

60%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

9Saves1

Discipline

6Fouls9

4Offsides1