Mansfield Town 0–1 Crawley Town: Result & Stats

Mansfield Town

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Crawley Town

1/28/2025

League One · Round 29One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Mansfield Town51%

×Draw23%

Crawley Town26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mansfield TownExpected goals in this matchCrawley Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.23

Mansfield Town

1.82

Crawley Town

1.23

Mansfield Town creates 48% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 24 away

1.48

creates per match

1.13

1.33

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Mansfield Town

1.48

Crawley Town

1.13

allows per match

Mansfield Town

1.33

Crawley Town

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Crawley Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Crawley Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw

74%

Mansfield Town or Crawley Town

77%

Draw or Crawley Town

49%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

28%

Crawley Town wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

84%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

54%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

27%

Crawley Town 1+ goals

71%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

35%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

66%

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.33 · 46 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.17 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.48 + Crawley Town defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.82

Crawley Town attack 1.13 + Mansfield Town defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mansfield Town scores more

51%

level

23%

Crawley Town scores more

26%

Mansfield Town at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff