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Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town — League Two 2018

Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Crawley Town
Crawley Town
4/1/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 39One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Mansfield Town49%
×Draw25%
Crawley Town26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mansfield Town
1.63
Crawley Town
1.12

Mansfield Town creates 46% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 158 away

creates per match

Mansfield Town
1.64
Crawley Town
1.08

allows per match

Mansfield Town
1.16
Crawley Town
1.63

finishing

Mansfield Town+0.00on par
Crawley Town+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Crawley Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw
74%
Mansfield Town or Crawley Town
75%
Draw or Crawley Town
51%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+
26%
Crawley Town wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals
80%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
48%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
22%
Crawley Town 1+ goals
67%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
31%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
65%
Crawley Town (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.16 · 134 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.63 · 158 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.64 + Crawley Town defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.63

Crawley Town attack 1.08 + Mansfield Town defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mansfield Town scores more
49%
level
25%
Crawley Town scores more
26%

Mansfield Town at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Mansfield Town 4–1 Crawley Town

Mansfield Town beat Crawley Town 4-1 in League Two on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at One Call Stadium in Mansfield, Nottinghamshire.