Mansfield Town 2–0 Crawley Town: Result & Stats

Mansfield Town

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Crawley Town

L. Akins 72'

J. Murphy 26'

4/23/2022

League Two · Round 44One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Mansfield Town47%

×Draw25%

Crawley Town28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mansfield TownExpected goals in this matchCrawley Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.19

Mansfield Town

1.61

Crawley Town

1.19

Mansfield Town creates 35% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 151 away

1.60

creates per match

1.17

1.22

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Mansfield Town

1.60

Crawley Town

1.17

allows per match

Mansfield Town

1.22

Crawley Town

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Crawley Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Crawley Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw

72%

Mansfield Town or Crawley Town

75%

Draw or Crawley Town

53%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

24%

Crawley Town wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

80%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

48%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

22%

Crawley Town 1+ goals

70%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

33%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

63%

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.22 · 139 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.62 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.60 + Crawley Town defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.61

Crawley Town attack 1.17 + Mansfield Town defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mansfield Town scores more

47%

level

25%

Crawley Town scores more

28%

Mansfield Town at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Murphy

Mansfield Town · M

7.6

Match Events

26'

36'

45+2'

56'

69'

69'

72'

L. Akins↳ S. McLaughlin

73'

M. Marshall← G. Francomb

80'

82'

83'

84'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MansfieldCrawley

Overview

64%Possession36%

17Total Shots5

5Corners3

17Fouls16

Shots

17Total Shots5

10On Target0

4Off Target5

3Blocked0

8Inside Box3

9Outside Box2

Passing

64%Possession36%

530Total Passes302

401Accurate Passes170

76%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

Discipline

17Fouls16

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

0Offsides5

Match Recap: Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town

Mansfield Town beat Crawley Town 2-0 in League Two on April 23, 2022.

Goals: J. Murphy (26'), L. Akins (72').

Mansfield Town controlled possession (64%) and registered 17 shots to 5.

The match was played at One Call Stadium in Mansfield, Nottinghamshire.

Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town