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Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town — League Two 2018

Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Crawley Town
Crawley Town
A. Cook 90+3'
G. Lapslie 72'
R. Sweeney 4'
M. Watters 59', 49'
T. Dallison 54'
12/5/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 16One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Mansfield Town47%
×Draw25%
Crawley Town28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mansfield Town
1.61
Crawley Town
1.19

Mansfield Town creates 35% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 151 away

creates per match

Mansfield Town
1.60
Crawley Town
1.17

allows per match

Mansfield Town
1.22
Crawley Town
1.62

finishing

Mansfield Town+0.00on par
Crawley Town+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Crawley Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw
72%
Mansfield Town or Crawley Town
75%
Draw or Crawley Town
53%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+
24%
Crawley Town wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals
80%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
48%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
22%
Crawley Town 1+ goals
70%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
33%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
63%
Crawley Town (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.22 · 139 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.62 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.60 + Crawley Town defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.61

Crawley Town attack 1.17 + Mansfield Town defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mansfield Town scores more
47%
level
25%
Crawley Town scores more
28%

Mansfield Town at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

36
M. WattersCrawley TownCrawley Town · F
8.2

Match Events

4'
R. Sweeney↳ G. Maris
46'
M. Watters← N. Tsaroulla
49'
M. Watters↳ A. Nadesan
54'
T. Dallison
59'
M. Watters↳ J. Hessenthaler
72'
G. Lapslie↳ J. Reid
74'
S. Matthews← A. Nadesan
74'
T. Frost← D. Bulman
76'
Tyler Frost
83'
N. Maynard← J. Reid
88'
Max Watters
90'
A. Cook← G. Maris
90+2'
J. McNerney← T. Nichols
90+3'
A. Cook

Possession

50%Mansfield

Shots

22Mansfield

Pass accuracy

52%Mansfield

Statistics

MansfieldCrawley
Overview
50%Possession50%
22Total Shots5
10Corners7
8Fouls15
Shots
22Total Shots5
10On Target4
7Off Target1
5Blocked0
14Inside Box3
8Outside Box2
Passing
50%Possession50%
343Total Passes358
223Accurate Passes212
65%Pass Accuracy59%
Goalkeeping
1Saves7
Discipline
8Fouls15
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town

Mansfield Town and Crawley Town drew 3-3 in League Two on December 5, 2020.

Goals: R. Sweeney (4'), M. Watters (49', 59'), T. Dallison (54'), G. Lapslie (72'), A. Cook (90+3').

Mansfield Town controlled possession (50%) and registered 22 shots to 5.

The match was played at One Call Stadium in Mansfield, Nottinghamshire.