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Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town — League Two 2018

Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
CANC
00:00
Crawley Town
Crawley Town
4/25/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 46One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Mansfield Town47%
×Draw25%
Crawley Town28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mansfield Town
1.61
Crawley Town
1.19

Mansfield Town creates 35% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 151 away

creates per match

Mansfield Town
1.60
Crawley Town
1.17

allows per match

Mansfield Town
1.22
Crawley Town
1.62

finishing

Mansfield Town+0.00on par
Crawley Town+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Crawley Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw
72%
Mansfield Town or Crawley Town
75%
Draw or Crawley Town
53%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+
24%
Crawley Town wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals
80%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
48%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
22%
Crawley Town 1+ goals
70%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
33%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
63%
Crawley Town (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.22 · 139 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.62 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.60 + Crawley Town defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.61

Crawley Town attack 1.17 + Mansfield Town defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mansfield Town scores more
47%
level
25%
Crawley Town scores more
28%

Mansfield Town at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Mansfield Town host Crawley Town

April 25, 2020: Mansfield Town take on Crawley Town in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Mansfield Town host Crawley Town at One Call Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.