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Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion — League One 2018

Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
Preview
14:00
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
4/17/2027League OneLeague One · Round 42One Call Stadium
Big match
41%
Mansfield Town
model favours
41%23%36%

Burton Albion score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
65%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Mansfield Town41%
×Draw23%
Burton Albion36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mansfield Town
1.71
Burton Albion
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Mansfield Town
1.77
Burton Albion
1.30

allows per match

Mansfield Town
1.84
Burton Albion
1.64

finishing

Mansfield Town-0.04on par
Burton Albion-0.30scores less

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw
64%
Mansfield Town or Burton Albion
77%
Draw or Burton Albion
59%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+
21%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals
82%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
51%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
24%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
79%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
46%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
54%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.84 · 11 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.64 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.77 + Burton Albion defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.71

Burton Albion attack 1.30 + Mansfield Town defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mansfield Town scores more
41%
level
23%
Burton Albion scores more
36%

Mansfield Town at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Burton Albion win just 24% of their away games
  • Burton Albion matches are rarely goalless — only 2.8% end 0-0
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Mansfield Town
Balanced
Burton Albion
Direct / counter-attacking
48%Possession43%
71%Pass accuracy64%
11.8ShotsBiggest gap9.9
1.37xG1.29
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Mansfield TownBurton Albion

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

1
Mansfield Town
4
Draws
5
Burton Albion
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 70%
0–01–21–13–31–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Town
LWDWW
Albion
LLDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Mansfield Town host Burton Albion

April 17, 2027: Mansfield Town take on Burton Albion in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Mansfield Town host Burton Albion at One Call Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.