Mansfield Town 3–3 Burton Albion: Result & Stats

Mansfield Town

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Burton Albion

L. Gregory 90+7' (pen)

J. Armer 45+1' (OG)

W. Evans 4'

B. Bodin 81', 7'

B. Whitfield 69'

8/17/2024

League One · Round 2One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Mansfield Town41%

×Draw23%

Burton Albion36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mansfield TownExpected goals in this matchBurton Albion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.57

Mansfield Town

1.71

Burton Albion

1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.77

creates per match

1.30

1.84

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Mansfield Town

1.77

Burton Albion

1.30

allows per match

Mansfield Town

1.84

Burton Albion

1.64

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

Mansfield Town-0.04on par

Burton Albion-0.30scores less

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Burton Albion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw

64%

Mansfield Town or Burton Albion

77%

Draw or Burton Albion

59%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

21%

Burton Albion wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

82%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

51%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

24%

Burton Albion 1+ goals

79%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

46%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

54%

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.84 · 11 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.64 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.77 + Burton Albion defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.71

Burton Albion attack 1.30 + Mansfield Town defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mansfield Town scores more

41%

level

23%

Burton Albion scores more

36%

Mansfield Town at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

B. Bodin

Burton Albion · F

9.0

Match Events

4'

W. Evans

7'

B. Bodin↳ B. Whitfield

9'

Jack Armer

45+1'

J. ArmerOwn goal

60'

D. Williams← N. Akoto

69'

B. Whitfield↳ T. Kalinauskas

72'

Louis Reed

75'

W. Swan← W. Evans

75'

H. Boateng← S. Quinn

76'

G. Bajrami← K. Chauke

78'

Terence Vancooten

81'

B. Bodin↳ D. Orsi

82'

M. Bennett← D. Orsi

83'

J. Cooper-Love← B. Whitfield

85'

S. McLaughlin← J. Bowery

89'

A. Lewis← K. Baccus

90+6'

Geraldo Bajrami

90+7'

L. GregoryPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MansfieldBurton

Overview

54%Possession46%

18Total Shots22

5Corners3

12Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots22

7On Target7

5Off Target7

6Blocked8

16Inside Box12

2Outside Box10

Passing

54%Possession46%

470Total Passes412

367Accurate Passes299

78%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1