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Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town — League #46 2026

Burton Albion
Burton Albion
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
T. Hamer 53'
C. Stockton 34'
G. Cooper 21'
11/21/2023League #46League #46 · Group Stage - 10Pirelli Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Burton Albion49%
×Draw23%
Mansfield Town28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burton Albion
1.83
Mansfield Town
1.34

Burton Albion creates 37% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Burton Albion
1.80
Mansfield Town
1.29

allows per match

Burton Albion
1.40
Mansfield Town
1.86

finishing

Burton Albion+0.00on par
Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Mansfield Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw
72%
Burton Albion or Mansfield Town
77%
Draw or Mansfield Town
51%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+
27%
Mansfield Town wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals
84%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
54%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
28%
Mansfield Town 1+ goals
74%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
39%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)
63%
Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.80 + Mansfield Town defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.83

Mansfield Town attack 1.29 + Burton Albion defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Burton Albion scores more
49%
level
23%
Mansfield Town scores more
28%

Burton Albion at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
J. PowellBurton AlbionBurton Albion · M
8.0

Match Events

21'
G. Cooper
34'
Adedeji Oshilaja
34'
C. Stockton↳ M. Bennett
46'
A. Lewis← G. Maris
46'
B. Cargill← C. Johnson
46'
J. Bowery← W. Swan
53'
T. Hamer↳ C. Stockton
62'
A. Flint← S. Quinn
64'
J. Walker← M. Bennett
65'
R. Harper← A. Oshilaja
74'
J. O'Toole← J. Gale
83'
Aden Flint
86'
Jordan Bowery
90+4'
Hiram Boateng

Possession

51%Burton

Shots

15Burton

Pass accuracy

50%Burton

Statistics

BurtonMansfield
Overview
51%Possession49%
15Total Shots16
6Corners4
10Fouls8
Shots
15Total Shots16
5On Target4
5Off Target6
5Blocked6
10Inside Box10
5Outside Box6
Passing
51%Possession49%
482Total Passes457
399Accurate Passes384
83%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls8
1Yellow Cards3
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town

Burton Albion beat Mansfield Town 2-1 in League #46 on November 21, 2023.

Goals: G. Cooper (21'), C. Stockton (34'), T. Hamer (53').

Burton Albion controlled possession (51%) and registered 15 shots to 16.

The match was played at Pirelli Stadium in Burton-upon-Trent, Staffordshire.