Mansfield Town 2–0 Blackpool: Result & Stats

Mansfield Town

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Blackpool

W. Evans 39', 8'

10/5/2024

League One · Round 10One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Mansfield Town46%

×Draw23%

Blackpool30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mansfield TownExpected goals in this matchBlackpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.39

Mansfield Town

1.76

Blackpool

1.39

Mansfield Town creates 27% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.77

creates per match

0.94

1.84

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Mansfield Town

1.77

Blackpool

0.94

allows per match

Mansfield Town

1.84

Blackpool

1.75

-0.04on par

finishing

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

Mansfield Town-0.04on par

Blackpool+0.36scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Blackpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw

70%

Mansfield Town or Blackpool

77%

Draw or Blackpool

54%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

25%

Blackpool wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

83%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

52%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

26%

Blackpool 1+ goals

75%

Blackpool 2+ goals

40%

Blackpool 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

60%

Blackpool (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.84 · 11 matches

Blackpool away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.75 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.77 + Blackpool defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.76

Blackpool attack 0.94 + Mansfield Town defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mansfield Town scores more

46%

level

23%

Blackpool scores more

30%

Mansfield Town at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

W. Evans

Mansfield Town · F

8.3

Match Events

8'

W. Evans↳ S. McLaughlin

17'

Louis Reed

29'

Stephen McLaughlin

39'

W. Evans↳ S. McLaughlin

45+1'

Adedeji Oshilaja

65'

K. Baccus← S. Quinn

65'

J. Rhodes← A. Fletcher

66'

A. Lewis← H. Boateng

67'

Kyle Joseph

73'

E. Embleton← J. Husband

80'

F. Blake-Tracy← G. Williams

81'

Aaron Lewis

88'

T. Nichols← B. Waine

88'

A. Kilgour← W. Evans

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MansfieldBlackpool

Overview

37%Possession63%

6Total Shots9

10Corners3

12Fouls8

Shots

6Total Shots9

3On Target2

2Off Target5

1Blocked2

5Inside Box6

1Outside Box3

Passing

37%Possession63%

289Total Passes503

179Accurate Passes382

62%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls8

4Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0