Blackpool 1–0 Mansfield Town: Result & Stats

Blackpool

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mansfield Town

N. Ennis 34'

2/17/2026

League One · Round 33Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Blackpool39%

×Draw26%

Mansfield Town35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackpoolExpected goals in this matchMansfield Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.30

Blackpool

1.39

Mansfield Town

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

1.49

creates per match

0.98

1.63

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Blackpool

1.49

Mansfield Town

0.98

allows per match

Blackpool

1.63

Mansfield Town

1.28

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Blackpool-0.11scores less

Mansfield Town+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Mansfield Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw

65%

Blackpool or Mansfield Town

74%

Draw or Mansfield Town

61%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+

18%

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals

75%

Blackpool 2+ goals

40%

Blackpool 3+ goals

16%

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

73%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

37%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)

53%

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.28 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.49 + Mansfield Town defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.39

Mansfield Town attack 0.98 + Blackpool defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Blackpool scores more

39%

level

26%

Mansfield Town scores more

35%

Blackpool at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

F. Horsfall

Blackpool · D

7.6

Match Events

34'

N. Ennis↳ C. Hamilton

41'

Reuell Walters

41'

Jordan Brown

60'

A. Lewis← J. Russell

61'

R. Oates← V. Adeboyejo

61'

W. Evans← O. Irow

64'

T. Bloxham← N. Ennis

67'

Bailey Peacock-Farrell

68'

H. Coulson← C. Hamilton

77'

N. Moriah-Welsh← R. Hendry

77'

E. Hewitt← S. McLaughlin

78'

J. Bowler← L. Clarkson

85'

Oliver Casey

89'

Karoy Anderson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackpoolMansfield

Overview

41%Possession59%

6Total Shots11

0.64Expected Goals (xG)0.84

4Corners1

17Fouls11

Shots

6Total Shots11

3On Target2

2Off Target7

1Blocked2

6Inside Box8

0Outside Box3

Passing

41%Possession59%

324Total Passes457

204Accurate Passes339

63%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls11

5Yellow Cards0

2Offsides1