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Mansfield Town vs Barnsley — League One 2018

Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
Preview
15:00
Barnsley
Barnsley
12/26/2026League OneLeague One · Round 21One Call Stadium
39%
Barnsley
model favours
36%25%39%

91% of Barnsley’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Mansfield Town36%
×Draw25%
Barnsley39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mansfield Town
1.40
Barnsley
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 118 away

creates per match

Mansfield Town
1.48
Barnsley
1.59

allows per match

Mansfield Town
1.33
Barnsley
1.31

finishing

Mansfield Town+0.00on par
Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Barnsley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw
61%
Mansfield Town or Barnsley
75%
Draw or Barnsley
64%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+
17%
Barnsley wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals
75%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
41%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
17%
Barnsley 1+ goals
77%
Barnsley 2+ goals
43%
Barnsley 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
48%
Barnsley (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.33 · 46 matches

Barnsley away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.31 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.48 + Barnsley defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.40

Barnsley attack 1.59 + Mansfield Town defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mansfield Town scores more
36%
level
25%
Barnsley scores more
39%

Barnsley at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Barnsley score first in only 18% of matches
  • Both teams score in 82% of Barnsley’s matches
  • Mansfield Town have won 3 of the last 4 meetings
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 4 meetings
  • Mansfield Town outscore their xG (2.1 vs 1.5 expected)
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged 3.8 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Mansfield Town
Balanced
Barnsley
Balanced
42%PossessionBiggest gap52%
69%Pass accuracy74%
12.5Shots13.1
1.50xG1.48
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Mansfield TownBarnsley

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

3
Mansfield Town
1
Draws
0
Barnsley
Avg goals: 3.8BTTS: 100%
2–23–22–12–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Town
WDWWD
Barnsley
LWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mansfield Town face Barnsley (League One)

League One returns with Mansfield Town hosting Barnsley. Match starts December 26, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Mansfield Town host Barnsley at One Call Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.