Barnsley 1–2 Mansfield Town: Result & Stats

Barnsley

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Mansfield Town

8/9/2024

League One · Round 1Oakwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Barnsley44%

×Draw25%

Mansfield Town31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarnsleyExpected goals in this matchMansfield Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.23

Barnsley

1.52

Mansfield Town

1.23

Barnsley creates 24% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 46 away

1.68

creates per match

1.17

1.30

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Barnsley

1.68

Mansfield Town

1.17

allows per match

Barnsley

1.30

Mansfield Town

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barnsley+0.00on par

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnsley ↓

Mansfield Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Barnsley or draw

69%

Barnsley or Mansfield Town

75%

Draw or Mansfield Town

56%

Winning margin

Barnsley wins by 2+

22%

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Barnsley 1+ goals

78%

Barnsley 2+ goals

45%

Barnsley 3+ goals

20%

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

71%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

35%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Barnsley (draw refunded)

59%

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnsley at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.30 · 119 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.35 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnsley attack 1.68 + Mansfield Town defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.52

Mansfield Town attack 1.17 + Barnsley defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Barnsley scores more

44%

level

25%

Mansfield Town scores more

31%

Barnsley at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff