Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mansfield Town vs Barnsley — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
CANC
18:00
Barnsley
Barnsley
7/25/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Mansfield Town25%
×Draw26%
Barnsley49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mansfield Town
1.00
Barnsley
1.50

Barnsley creates 50% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Mansfield Town
1.00
Barnsley
1.75

allows per match

Mansfield Town
1.25
Barnsley
1.00

finishing

Mansfield Town+0.00on par
Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Barnsley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw
51%
Mansfield Town or Barnsley
74%
Draw or Barnsley
75%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+
9%
Barnsley wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals
63%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
26%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
8%
Barnsley 1+ goals
78%
Barnsley 2+ goals
44%
Barnsley 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
34%
Barnsley (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Barnsley away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.00 + Barnsley defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Barnsley attack 1.75 + Mansfield Town defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mansfield Town scores more
25%
level
26%
Barnsley scores more
49%

Barnsley at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mansfield Town vs Barnsley — Match Preview

Mansfield Town face Barnsley on July 25, 2023 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Mansfield Town host Barnsley at One Call Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.