Mansfield Town vs AFC Wimbledon

Mansfield Town

Preview

19:45

AFC Wimbledon

1/19/2027

League One · Round 26One Call Stadium

Big match

47%

Mansfield Town

model favours

47%23%31%

1–1

likely score

65%

over 2.5 goals

65%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Mansfield Town47%

×Draw23%

AFC Wimbledon31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mansfield TownExpected goals in this matchAFC Wimbledon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.47

Mansfield Town

1.86

AFC Wimbledon

1.47

Mansfield Town creates 27% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.77

creates per match

1.10

1.84

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Mansfield Town

1.77

AFC Wimbledon

1.10

allows per match

Mansfield Town

1.84

AFC Wimbledon

1.96

-0.04on par

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Mansfield Town-0.04on par

AFC Wimbledon+0.17scores more

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

AFC Wimbledon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw

69%

Mansfield Town or AFC Wimbledon

77%

Draw or AFC Wimbledon

53%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

26%

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

84%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

55%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

28%

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

77%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

43%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

60%

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.84 · 11 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.96 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.77 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.86

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.10 + Mansfield Town defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mansfield Town scores more

47%

level

23%

AFC Wimbledon scores more

31%

Mansfield Town at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Similar styles

Mansfield Town

Balanced

AFC Wimbledon

Balanced

47%Possession47%

71%Pass accuracy68%

11.8Shots10.6

1.37xGBiggest gap1.16

Mansfield TownAFC Wimbledon

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

2

Mansfield Town

3

Draws

1

AFC Wimbledon

Avg goals: 3BTTS: 67%

2–20–01–20–03–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Town

LWDWW

Wimbledon

DWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff