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AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town — League Two 2018

AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
1/27/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 30The Cherry Red Records Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

AFC Wimbledon39%
×Draw27%
Mansfield Town34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Wimbledon
1.29
Mansfield Town
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 136 away

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.46
Mansfield Town
1.38

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.00
Mansfield Town
1.13

finishing

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par
Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Mansfield Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw
66%
AFC Wimbledon or Mansfield Town
73%
Draw or Mansfield Town
61%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
17%
Mansfield Town wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
72%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
37%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
14%
Mansfield Town 1+ goals
70%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
33%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
53%
Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.00 · 71 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.46 + Mansfield Town defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.29

Mansfield Town attack 1.38 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more
39%
level
27%
Mansfield Town scores more
34%

AFC Wimbledon at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AFC Wimbledon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: AFC Wimbledon 2–1 Mansfield Town

AFC Wimbledon beat Mansfield Town 2-1 in League Two on January 27, 2024.

The match was played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium in London.