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AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town — League One 2018

AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
12/13/2025League OneLeague One · Round 20The Cherry Red Records Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

AFC Wimbledon35%
×Draw27%
Mansfield Town38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Wimbledon
1.25
Mansfield Town
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 46 away

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.15
Mansfield Town
1.17

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.45
Mansfield Town
1.35

finishing

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par
Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Mansfield Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw
62%
AFC Wimbledon or Mansfield Town
73%
Draw or Mansfield Town
65%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
15%
Mansfield Town wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
71%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
36%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
13%
Mansfield Town 1+ goals
73%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
38%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
48%
Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.45 · 110 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.35 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.15 + Mansfield Town defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Mansfield Town attack 1.17 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more
35%
level
27%
Mansfield Town scores more
38%

Mansfield Town at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: AFC Wimbledon 0–0 Mansfield Town

AFC Wimbledon and Mansfield Town drew 0-0 in League One on December 13, 2025.

The match was played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium in London.