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Mansfield Town vs AFC Wimbledon — League Two 2018

Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
W. Swan 87'
R. Harbottle 70'
G. Maris 56'
G. Lapslie 40'
R. Oates 32' (pen)
J. Davison 16', 4'
8/16/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 4One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Mansfield Town43%
×Draw27%
AFC Wimbledon30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mansfield Town
1.35
AFC Wimbledon
1.07

Mansfield Town creates 26% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 73 away

creates per match

Mansfield Town
1.60
AFC Wimbledon
0.93

allows per match

Mansfield Town
1.22
AFC Wimbledon
1.10

finishing

Mansfield Town+0.00on par
AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

AFC Wimbledon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw
70%
Mansfield Town or AFC Wimbledon
73%
Draw or AFC Wimbledon
57%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+
20%
AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals
74%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
39%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
15%
AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
66%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
29%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
59%
AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.22 · 139 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.10 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.60 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.35

AFC Wimbledon attack 0.93 + Mansfield Town defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mansfield Town scores more
43%
level
27%
AFC Wimbledon scores more
30%

Mansfield Town at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
G. MarisMansfield TownMansfield Town · M
8.9

Match Events

4'
J. Davison↳ N. Young-Coombes
16'
J. Davison↳ N. Young-Coombes
28'
George Marsh
31'
Jack Currie
32'
R. OatesPenalty
40'
G. Lapslie↳ J. Bowery
45+3'
Stephen McLaughlin
45'
Stephen Quinn
45+4'
Lee Brown
45'
Chris Gunter
46'
I. Ogundere← N. Young-Coombes
56'
G. Maris↳ O. Clarke
63'
A. Hartigan← S. Quinn
63'
D. Fisher← J. Currie
70'
R. Harbottle↳ G. Maris
71'
K. Gordon← S. McLaughlin
78'
W. Swan← R. Oates
78'
K. Wallace← O. Clarke
78'
E. Hewitt← J. Bowery
82'
Isaac Ogundere
83'
P. Kalambayi← A. Pearce
83'
Q. Bartley← J. Davison
87'
W. Swan↳ G. Lapslie
89'
E. Chislett← A. Assal

Possession

70%Mansfield

Shots

13Mansfield

Pass accuracy

56%Mansfield

Statistics

MansfieldAFC
Overview
70%Possession30%
13Total Shots5
7Corners3
16Fouls12
Shots
13Total Shots5
6On Target2
5Off Target2
2Blocked1
8Inside Box4
5Outside Box1
Passing
70%Possession30%
563Total Passes244
489Accurate Passes163
87%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
16Fouls12
2Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
1Offsides2

League Two: Mansfield Town 5–2 AFC Wimbledon

Mansfield Town beat AFC Wimbledon 5-2 in League Two on August 16, 2022.

Goals: J. Davison (4', 16'), R. Oates (32' pen), G. Lapslie (40'), G. Maris (56'), R. Harbottle (70'), W. Swan (87').

Mansfield Town controlled possession (70%) and registered 13 shots to 5.

The match was played at One Call Stadium in Mansfield, Nottinghamshire.