Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 2–3 Traiskirchen

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Traiskirchen

10/18/2024

Regionalliga - Ost · Ost - 12Aulandstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf48%

×Draw22%

Traiskirchen30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mannsdorf-GroßenzersdorfExpected goals in this matchTraiskirchen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.44

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf

1.88

Traiskirchen

1.44

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf creates 31% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 101 away

2.02

creates per match

1.73

1.15

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf

2.02

Traiskirchen

1.73

allows per match

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf

1.15

Traiskirchen

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf+0.00on par

Traiskirchen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf ↓

Traiskirchen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf or draw

70%

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf or Traiskirchen

78%

Draw or Traiskirchen

52%

Winning margin

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf wins by 2+

27%

Traiskirchen wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 1+ goals

85%

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 2+ goals

56%

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 3+ goals

29%

Traiskirchen 1+ goals

76%

Traiskirchen 2+ goals

42%

Traiskirchen 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf (draw refunded)

62%

Traiskirchen (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.15 · 101 matches

Traiskirchen away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.73 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf attack 2.02 + Traiskirchen defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.88

Traiskirchen attack 1.73 + Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf scores more

48%

level

22%

Traiskirchen scores more

30%

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff