Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Manningham United Blues vs Kingston City — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Manningham United Blues
Manningham United Blues
FT
1 – 6
HT: 0 – 4
Kingston City
Kingston City
7/5/2025Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 21Pettys Reserve Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Manningham United Blues41%
×Draw22%
Kingston City37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manningham United Blues
1.93
Kingston City
1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 57 away

creates per match

Manningham United Blues
1.70
Kingston City
1.74

allows per match

Manningham United Blues
1.91
Kingston City
2.16

finishing

Manningham United Blues+0.00on par
Kingston City+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manningham United Blues ↓

Kingston City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Manningham United Blues or draw
63%
Manningham United Blues or Kingston City
78%
Draw or Kingston City
59%

Winning margin

Manningham United Blues wins by 2+
22%
Kingston City wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Manningham United Blues 1+ goals
85%
Manningham United Blues 2+ goals
57%
Manningham United Blues 3+ goals
30%
Kingston City 1+ goals
84%
Kingston City 2+ goals
54%
Kingston City 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Manningham United Blues (draw refunded)
53%
Kingston City (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manningham United Blues at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.91 · 54 matches

Kingston City away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.16 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manningham United Blues attack 1.70 + Kingston City defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.93

Kingston City attack 1.74 + Manningham United Blues defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Manningham United Blues scores more
41%
level
22%
Kingston City scores more
37%

Manningham United Blues at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Manningham United Blues will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Manningham United Blues vs Kingston City

Kingston City beat Manningham United Blues 6-1 in Victoria NPL 2 on July 5, 2025.

The match was played at Pettys Reserve Pitch 1 in Melbourne.