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Kingston City vs Manningham United Blues — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Kingston City
Kingston City
FT
0 – 5
Manningham United Blues
Manningham United Blues
8/11/2023Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 25The Grange Reserve [Clayton South]

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Kingston City38%
×Draw22%
Manningham United Blues40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kingston City
1.83
Manningham United Blues
1.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 54 away

creates per match

Kingston City
1.61
Manningham United Blues
1.69

allows per match

Kingston City
2.09
Manningham United Blues
2.06

finishing

Kingston City+0.00on par
Manningham United Blues+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kingston City ↓

Manningham United Blues →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Kingston City or draw
60%
Kingston City or Manningham United Blues
78%
Draw or Manningham United Blues
62%

Winning margin

Kingston City wins by 2+
20%
Manningham United Blues wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Kingston City 1+ goals
84%
Kingston City 2+ goals
54%
Kingston City 3+ goals
28%
Manningham United Blues 1+ goals
85%
Manningham United Blues 2+ goals
56%
Manningham United Blues 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Kingston City (draw refunded)
48%
Manningham United Blues (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kingston City at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.09 · 57 matches

Manningham United Blues away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.06 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kingston City attack 1.61 + Manningham United Blues defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.83

Manningham United Blues attack 1.69 + Kingston City defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kingston City scores more
38%
level
22%
Manningham United Blues scores more
40%

Manningham United Blues at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Manningham United Blues will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kingston City vs Manningham United Blues

Manningham United Blues beat Kingston City 5-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on August 11, 2023.

The match was played at The Grange Reserve [Clayton South] in Melbourne.