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Manila Digger vs Loyola — PFL 2020

Manila Digger
Manila Digger
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Loyola
Loyola
5/4/2024PFLPFL · Round 4Rizal Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Manila Digger70%
×Draw16%
Loyola14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manila Digger
2.83
Loyola
1.23

Manila Digger creates 130% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 16 away

creates per match

Manila Digger
2.86
Loyola
1.38

allows per match

Manila Digger
1.07
Loyola
2.81

finishing

Manila Digger+0.00on par
Loyola+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manila Digger ↓

Loyola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Manila Digger or draw
86%
Manila Digger or Loyola
84%
Draw or Loyola
30%

Winning margin

Manila Digger wins by 2+
49%
Loyola wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Manila Digger 1+ goals
94%
Manila Digger 2+ goals
77%
Manila Digger 3+ goals
53%
Loyola 1+ goals
71%
Loyola 2+ goals
35%
Loyola 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Manila Digger (draw refunded)
83%
Loyola (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manila Digger at home — creates 2.86, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

Loyola away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manila Digger attack 2.86 + Loyola defence 2.81 → ÷2 → 2.83

Loyola attack 1.38 + Manila Digger defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Manila Digger scores more
70%
level
16%
Loyola scores more
14%

Manila Digger at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Manila Digger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

PFL: Manila Digger 3–1 Loyola

Manila Digger beat Loyola 3-1 in PFL on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Rizal Memorial Stadium in Manila.