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Loyola vs Manila Digger — PFL 2020

Loyola
Loyola
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Manila Digger
Manila Digger
4/13/2025PFLPFL · Round 9Biñan Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Loyola13%
×Draw14%
Manila Digger73%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loyola
1.32
Manila Digger
3.19

Manila Digger creates 142% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 31 away

creates per match

Loyola
1.88
Manila Digger
3.94

allows per match

Loyola
2.44
Manila Digger
0.77

finishing

Loyola+0.00on par
Manila Digger+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loyola ↓

Manila Digger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–36%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Loyola or draw
27%
Loyola or Manila Digger
86%
Draw or Manila Digger
87%

Winning margin

Loyola wins by 2+
5%
Manila Digger wins by 2+
54%

Team goals

Loyola 1+ goals
73%
Loyola 2+ goals
38%
Loyola 3+ goals
15%
Manila Digger 1+ goals
96%
Manila Digger 2+ goals
82%
Manila Digger 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

Loyola (draw refunded)
15%
Manila Digger (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loyola at home — creates 1.88, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

Manila Digger away — creates 3.94, concedes 0.77 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loyola attack 1.88 + Manila Digger defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.32

Manila Digger attack 3.94 + Loyola defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 3.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Loyola scores more
13%
level
14%
Manila Digger scores more
73%

Manila Digger at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Manila Digger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Loyola vs Manila Digger

Manila Digger beat Loyola 5-0 in PFL on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at Biñan Football Stadium in Biñan.