Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Maniema Union vs Groupe Bazano — Ligue 1 2019

Maniema Union
Maniema Union
FT
2 – 0
Groupe Bazano
Groupe Bazano
11/22/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 7Stade Joseph Kabila Kabange

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Maniema Union58%
×Draw27%
Groupe Bazano15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maniema Union
1.46
Groupe Bazano
0.60

Maniema Union creates 143% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 73 away

creates per match

Maniema Union
1.65
Groupe Bazano
0.70

allows per match

Maniema Union
0.50
Groupe Bazano
1.27

finishing

Maniema Union+0.00on par
Groupe Bazano+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maniema Union ↓

Groupe Bazano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Maniema Union or draw
85%
Maniema Union or Groupe Bazano
73%
Draw or Groupe Bazano
42%

Winning margin

Maniema Union wins by 2+
30%
Groupe Bazano wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Maniema Union 1+ goals
77%
Maniema Union 2+ goals
43%
Maniema Union 3+ goals
18%
Groupe Bazano 1+ goals
45%
Groupe Bazano 2+ goals
12%
Groupe Bazano 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Maniema Union (draw refunded)
79%
Groupe Bazano (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maniema Union at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.50 · 86 matches

Groupe Bazano away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.27 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maniema Union attack 1.65 + Groupe Bazano defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.46

Groupe Bazano attack 0.70 + Maniema Union defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Maniema Union scores more
58%
level
27%
Groupe Bazano scores more
15%

Maniema Union at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Maniema Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Maniema Union 2–0 Groupe Bazano

Maniema Union beat Groupe Bazano 2-0 in Ligue 1 on November 22, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Joseph Kabila Kabange in Kindu.