Groupe Bazano 0–1 Maniema Union: Result & Stats

Groupe Bazano

FT

0 – 1

Maniema Union

5/9/2021

Ligue 1 · Round 20Stade Frédéric Kibassa Maliba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Groupe Bazano28%

×Draw28%

Maniema Union44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Groupe BazanoExpected goals in this matchManiema Union

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.30

Groupe Bazano

0.99

Maniema Union

1.30

Maniema Union creates 31% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 93 away

1.28

creates per match

1.42

1.19

allows per match

0.70

creates per match

Groupe Bazano

1.28

Maniema Union

1.42

allows per match

Groupe Bazano

1.19

Maniema Union

0.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Groupe Bazano+0.00on par

Maniema Union+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Groupe Bazano ↓

Maniema Union →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Groupe Bazano or draw

56%

Groupe Bazano or Maniema Union

72%

Draw or Maniema Union

72%

Winning margin

Groupe Bazano wins by 2+

10%

Maniema Union wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Groupe Bazano 1+ goals

63%

Groupe Bazano 2+ goals

26%

Groupe Bazano 3+ goals

8%

Maniema Union 1+ goals

73%

Maniema Union 2+ goals

37%

Maniema Union 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Groupe Bazano (draw refunded)

39%

Maniema Union (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Groupe Bazano at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.19 · 75 matches

Maniema Union away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.70 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Groupe Bazano attack 1.28 + Maniema Union defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.99

Maniema Union attack 1.42 + Groupe Bazano defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Groupe Bazano scores more

28%

level

28%

Maniema Union scores more

44%

Maniema Union at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Maniema Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff