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Maniema Union vs FAR Rabat — CAF Champions League 2019

Maniema Union
Maniema Union
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FAR Rabat
FAR Rabat
E. Moanda 37'
Tó Carneiro 62'
12/14/2024CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group Stage - 3Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Maniema Union42%
×Draw28%
FAR Rabat30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maniema Union
1.25
FAR Rabat
1.02

Maniema Union creates 23% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 16 away

creates per match

Maniema Union
1.50
FAR Rabat
0.88

allows per match

Maniema Union
1.17
FAR Rabat
1.00

finishing

Maniema Union+0.00on par
FAR Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maniema Union ↓

FAR Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Maniema Union or draw
70%
Maniema Union or FAR Rabat
72%
Draw or FAR Rabat
58%

Winning margin

Maniema Union wins by 2+
18%
FAR Rabat wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Maniema Union 1+ goals
71%
Maniema Union 2+ goals
36%
Maniema Union 3+ goals
13%
FAR Rabat 1+ goals
64%
FAR Rabat 2+ goals
27%
FAR Rabat 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Maniema Union (draw refunded)
58%
FAR Rabat (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maniema Union at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

FAR Rabat away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maniema Union attack 1.50 + FAR Rabat defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

FAR Rabat attack 0.88 + Maniema Union defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Maniema Union scores more
42%
level
28%
FAR Rabat scores more
30%

Maniema Union at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Maniema Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
A. ZouhzouhFAR RabatFAR Rabat · M
7.7

Match Events

37'
E. Moanda↳ Â. Basiala
45+5'
Osée Ndombele
61'
M. Hrimat← A. Bach
62'
Tó Carneiro↳ M. Hrimat
65'
T. Simete← A. Bokomboli
65'
L. Joël← O. Mbala
75'
Y. El Fahli← A. Hammoudan
75'
Z. Ajoughlal← A. Zouhzouh
79'
J. Kanu← L. Dieumerci
83'
A. Hadraf← K. Aït Ouarkhane
84'
T. Orebonye← J. Beya
85'
C. Balako← J. Bakasu

Possession

45%Maniema

Shots

15Maniema

Pass accuracy

51%Maniema

Statistics

ManiemaFAR
Overview
45%Possession55%
15Total Shots7
9Corners4
9Fouls8
Shots
15Total Shots7
1On Target5
9Off Target2
5Blocked0
9Inside Box6
6Outside Box1
Passing
45%Possession55%
328Total Passes414
266Accurate Passes324
81%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
3Saves0
Discipline
9Fouls8
1Yellow Cards0
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Maniema Union vs FAR Rabat

Maniema Union and FAR Rabat drew 1-1 in CAF Champions League on December 14, 2024.

Goals: E. Moanda (37'), Tó Carneiro (62').

FAR Rabat controlled possession (55%) and registered 7 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte in Kinshasa.