FAR Rabat 2–0 Maniema Union: Result & Stats

FAR Rabat

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Maniema Union

A. Zouhzouh 45+3'

K. Aït Ouarkhane 12'

1/4/2025

CAF Champions League · Group Stage - 4Stade d'Honneur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

FAR Rabat64%

×Draw27%

Maniema Union9%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FAR RabatExpected goals in this matchManiema Union

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.32

FAR Rabat

1.37

Maniema Union

0.32

FAR Rabat creates 328% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 7 away

1.88

creates per match

0.14

0.50

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

FAR Rabat

1.88

Maniema Union

0.14

allows per match

FAR Rabat

0.50

Maniema Union

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FAR Rabat+0.00on par

Maniema Union+0.00on par

Total goals

Under76
Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No80
Yes20

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAR Rabat ↓

Maniema Union →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–16%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–025%

1–18%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–13%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (25%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

50%50%2.5

24%76%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

FAR Rabat or draw

91%

FAR Rabat or Maniema Union

73%

Draw or Maniema Union

36%

Winning margin

FAR Rabat wins by 2+

33%

Maniema Union wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

FAR Rabat 1+ goals

75%

FAR Rabat 2+ goals

40%

FAR Rabat 3+ goals

16%

Maniema Union 1+ goals

27%

Maniema Union 2+ goals

4%

Maniema Union 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

FAR Rabat (draw refunded)

88%

Maniema Union (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

12%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAR Rabat at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.50 · 16 matches

Maniema Union away — creates 0.14, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAR Rabat attack 1.88 + Maniema Union defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.37

Maniema Union attack 0.14 + FAR Rabat defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

FAR Rabat scores more

64%

level

27%

Maniema Union scores more

9%

FAR Rabat at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "FAR Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34

M. Hrimat

FAR Rabat · M

7.9

Match Events

12'

K. Aït Ouarkhane

38'

Exaucia Moanda

45+3'

A. Zouhzouh

69'

A. Hammoudan← T. Orebonye

75'

R. Musinga← O. Sangana

78'

J. Beya← Y. El Fahli

78'

L. Joël← O. Mbala

78'

C. Balako← J. Kitambala

79'

A. Nakach← Tó Carneiro

90+4'

Lucien Joël

90+2'

Z. Derrag← A. Zouhzouh

90'

J. Kanu← Â. Basiala

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FARManiema

Overview

60%Possession40%

8Total Shots9

2Corners6

12Fouls19

Shots

8Total Shots9

3On Target2

4Off Target4

1Blocked3

4Inside Box4

4Outside Box5

Passing

60%Possession40%

507Total Passes332

428Accurate Passes245

84%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls19

0Yellow Cards2

5Offsides3