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Manica Diamonds vs Hwange — Premier Soccer League 2026

Manica Diamonds
Manica Diamonds
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hwange
Hwange
5/26/2024Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 14Sakubva Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Manica Diamonds52%
×Draw30%
Hwange18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manica Diamonds
1.22
Hwange
0.59

Manica Diamonds creates 107% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 52 away

creates per match

Manica Diamonds
1.07
Hwange
0.60

allows per match

Manica Diamonds
0.58
Hwange
1.37

finishing

Manica Diamonds+0.00on par
Hwange+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manica Diamonds ↓

Hwange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Manica Diamonds or draw
82%
Manica Diamonds or Hwange
70%
Draw or Hwange
48%

Winning margin

Manica Diamonds wins by 2+
24%
Hwange wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Manica Diamonds 1+ goals
70%
Manica Diamonds 2+ goals
34%
Manica Diamonds 3+ goals
12%
Hwange 1+ goals
45%
Hwange 2+ goals
12%
Hwange 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Manica Diamonds (draw refunded)
74%
Hwange (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manica Diamonds at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.58 · 96 matches

Hwange away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.37 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manica Diamonds attack 1.07 + Hwange defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.22

Hwange attack 0.60 + Manica Diamonds defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Manica Diamonds scores more
52%
level
30%
Hwange scores more
18%

Manica Diamonds at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Manica Diamonds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Manica Diamonds vs Hwange

Manica Diamonds beat Hwange 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Sakubva Stadium in Mutare.