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Hwange vs Manica Diamonds — Premier Soccer League 2026

Hwange
Hwange
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Manica Diamonds
Manica Diamonds
6/4/2023Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 12Colliery Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hwange42%
×Draw33%
Manica Diamonds25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hwange
1.04
Manica Diamonds
0.73

Hwange creates 42% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 96 away

creates per match

Hwange
1.00
Manica Diamonds
0.69

allows per match

Hwange
0.78
Manica Diamonds
1.09

finishing

Hwange+0.00on par
Manica Diamonds+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hwange ↓

Manica Diamonds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Hwange or draw
75%
Hwange or Manica Diamonds
67%
Draw or Manica Diamonds
58%

Winning margin

Hwange wins by 2+
17%
Manica Diamonds wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hwange 1+ goals
65%
Hwange 2+ goals
28%
Hwange 3+ goals
9%
Manica Diamonds 1+ goals
52%
Manica Diamonds 2+ goals
17%
Manica Diamonds 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Hwange (draw refunded)
63%
Manica Diamonds (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hwange at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.78 · 51 matches

Manica Diamonds away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.09 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hwange attack 1.00 + Manica Diamonds defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Manica Diamonds attack 0.69 + Hwange defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hwange scores more
42%
level
33%
Manica Diamonds scores more
25%

Hwange at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hwange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Hwange 0–1 Manica Diamonds

Manica Diamonds beat Hwange 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at Colliery Stadium in Hwange.