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Manica Diamonds vs Bulawayo City — Premier Soccer League 2026

Manica Diamonds
Manica Diamonds
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bulawayo City
Bulawayo City
7/3/2022Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 19Sakubva Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Manica Diamonds51%
×Draw33%
Bulawayo City16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manica Diamonds
1.10
Bulawayo City
0.48

Manica Diamonds creates 129% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 16 away

creates per match

Manica Diamonds
1.07
Bulawayo City
0.38

allows per match

Manica Diamonds
0.58
Bulawayo City
1.13

finishing

Manica Diamonds+0.00on par
Bulawayo City+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

75%No
  • No75
  • Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manica Diamonds ↓

Bulawayo City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–110%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–023%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (23%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Manica Diamonds or draw
84%
Manica Diamonds or Bulawayo City
67%
Draw or Bulawayo City
49%

Winning margin

Manica Diamonds wins by 2+
22%
Bulawayo City wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Manica Diamonds 1+ goals
67%
Manica Diamonds 2+ goals
30%
Manica Diamonds 3+ goals
10%
Bulawayo City 1+ goals
38%
Bulawayo City 2+ goals
8%
Bulawayo City 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Manica Diamonds (draw refunded)
76%
Bulawayo City (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manica Diamonds at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.58 · 96 matches

Bulawayo City away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manica Diamonds attack 1.07 + Bulawayo City defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Bulawayo City attack 0.38 + Manica Diamonds defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Manica Diamonds scores more
51%
level
33%
Bulawayo City scores more
16%

Manica Diamonds at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Manica Diamonds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Manica Diamonds vs Bulawayo City

Bulawayo City beat Manica Diamonds 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on July 3, 2022.

The match was played at Sakubva Stadium in Mutare.