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Bulawayo City vs Manica Diamonds — Premier Soccer League 2026

Bulawayo City
Bulawayo City
FT
1 – 2
Manica Diamonds
Manica Diamonds
11/27/2021Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 2Barbourfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bulawayo City35%
×Draw31%
Manica Diamonds34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bulawayo City
0.99
Manica Diamonds
0.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 96 away

creates per match

Bulawayo City
0.88
Manica Diamonds
0.69

allows per match

Bulawayo City
1.24
Manica Diamonds
1.09

finishing

Bulawayo City+0.00on par
Manica Diamonds+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulawayo City ↓

Manica Diamonds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Bulawayo City or draw
66%
Bulawayo City or Manica Diamonds
69%
Draw or Manica Diamonds
65%

Winning margin

Bulawayo City wins by 2+
13%
Manica Diamonds wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bulawayo City 1+ goals
63%
Bulawayo City 2+ goals
26%
Bulawayo City 3+ goals
8%
Manica Diamonds 1+ goals
62%
Manica Diamonds 2+ goals
25%
Manica Diamonds 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bulawayo City (draw refunded)
51%
Manica Diamonds (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulawayo City at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

Manica Diamonds away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.09 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulawayo City attack 0.88 + Manica Diamonds defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.99

Manica Diamonds attack 0.69 + Bulawayo City defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Bulawayo City scores more
35%
level
31%
Manica Diamonds scores more
34%

Bulawayo City at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Bulawayo City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bulawayo City vs Manica Diamonds

Manica Diamonds beat Bulawayo City 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on November 27, 2021.

The match was played at Barbourfields Stadium in Bulawayo.