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Mangasport vs CS Bendje — Championnat D1 2022

Mangasport
Mangasport
CANC
15:00
CS Bendje
CS Bendje
5/7/2023Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mangasport59%
×Draw24%
CS Bendje17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mangasport
1.67
CS Bendje
0.76

Mangasport creates 120% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 19 away

creates per match

Mangasport
2.13
CS Bendje
0.84

allows per match

Mangasport
0.68
CS Bendje
1.21

finishing

Mangasport+0.00on par
CS Bendje+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mangasport ↓

CS Bendje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mangasport or draw
83%
Mangasport or CS Bendje
76%
Draw or CS Bendje
41%

Winning margin

Mangasport wins by 2+
33%
CS Bendje wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mangasport 1+ goals
81%
Mangasport 2+ goals
50%
Mangasport 3+ goals
23%
CS Bendje 1+ goals
53%
CS Bendje 2+ goals
18%
CS Bendje 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mangasport (draw refunded)
78%
CS Bendje (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mangasport at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.68 · 31 matches

CS Bendje away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mangasport attack 2.13 + CS Bendje defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.67

CS Bendje attack 0.84 + Mangasport defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Mangasport scores more
59%
level
24%
CS Bendje scores more
17%

Mangasport at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Mangasport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mangasport vs CS Bendje — Match Preview

Mangasport face CS Bendje on May 7, 2023 in this Championnat D1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.