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CS Bendje vs Mangasport — Championnat D1 2022

CS Bendje
CS Bendje
FT
0 – 1
Mangasport
Mangasport
4/26/2025Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 21Stade Pierre Claver Divounguy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

CS Bendje20%
×Draw28%
Mangasport52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Bendje
0.71
Mangasport
1.34

Mangasport creates 89% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 31 away

creates per match

CS Bendje
0.95
Mangasport
1.52

allows per match

CS Bendje
1.16
Mangasport
0.48

finishing

CS Bendje+0.00on par
Mangasport+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Bendje ↓

Mangasport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–117%
0–212%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

CS Bendje or draw
48%
CS Bendje or Mangasport
72%
Draw or Mangasport
80%

Winning margin

CS Bendje wins by 2+
6%
Mangasport wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

CS Bendje 1+ goals
51%
CS Bendje 2+ goals
16%
CS Bendje 3+ goals
4%
Mangasport 1+ goals
74%
Mangasport 2+ goals
39%
Mangasport 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

CS Bendje (draw refunded)
28%
Mangasport (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Bendje at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Mangasport away — creates 1.52, concedes 0.48 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Bendje attack 0.95 + Mangasport defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.71

Mangasport attack 1.52 + CS Bendje defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

CS Bendje scores more
20%
level
28%
Mangasport scores more
52%

Mangasport at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Mangasport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat D1: CS Bendje 0–1 Mangasport

Mangasport beat CS Bendje 1-0 in Championnat D1 on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Pierre Claver Divounguy in Port-Gentil.