Mandurah City 3–1 Kalamunda City: Result & Stats

Mandurah City

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Kalamunda City

8/9/2025

Western Australia State League 1 · Round 20Poolmart Mandurah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Mandurah City50%

×Draw25%

Kalamunda City25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mandurah CityExpected goals in this matchKalamunda City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.06

Mandurah City

1.59

Kalamunda City

1.06

Mandurah City creates 50% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 11 away

2.00

creates per match

0.82

1.30

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Mandurah City

2.00

Kalamunda City

0.82

allows per match

Mandurah City

1.30

Kalamunda City

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mandurah City+0.00on par

Kalamunda City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mandurah City ↓

Kalamunda City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Mandurah City or draw

75%

Mandurah City or Kalamunda City

75%

Draw or Kalamunda City

50%

Winning margin

Mandurah City wins by 2+

26%

Kalamunda City wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Mandurah City 1+ goals

80%

Mandurah City 2+ goals

47%

Mandurah City 3+ goals

21%

Kalamunda City 1+ goals

65%

Kalamunda City 2+ goals

29%

Kalamunda City 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Mandurah City (draw refunded)

66%

Kalamunda City (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mandurah City at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

Kalamunda City away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mandurah City attack 2.00 + Kalamunda City defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.59

Kalamunda City attack 0.82 + Mandurah City defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mandurah City scores more

50%

level

25%

Kalamunda City scores more

25%

Mandurah City at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mandurah City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff