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Kalamunda City vs Mandurah City — Western Australia State League 1 2026

Kalamunda City
Kalamunda City
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Mandurah City
Mandurah City
5/24/2025Western Australia State League 1Western Australia State League 1 · Round 9Sutherlands Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Kalamunda City30%
×Draw21%
Mandurah City48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalamunda City
1.62
Mandurah City
2.08

Mandurah City creates 28% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 30 away

creates per match

Kalamunda City
1.27
Mandurah City
2.07

allows per match

Kalamunda City
2.09
Mandurah City
1.97

finishing

Kalamunda City+0.00on par
Mandurah City+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalamunda City ↓

Mandurah City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Kalamunda City or draw
52%
Kalamunda City or Mandurah City
79%
Draw or Mandurah City
70%

Winning margin

Kalamunda City wins by 2+
14%
Mandurah City wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Kalamunda City 1+ goals
80%
Kalamunda City 2+ goals
48%
Kalamunda City 3+ goals
22%
Mandurah City 1+ goals
87%
Mandurah City 2+ goals
61%
Mandurah City 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Kalamunda City (draw refunded)
39%
Mandurah City (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalamunda City at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

Mandurah City away — creates 2.07, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalamunda City attack 1.27 + Mandurah City defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.62

Mandurah City attack 2.07 + Kalamunda City defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kalamunda City scores more
30%
level
21%
Mandurah City scores more
48%

Mandurah City at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mandurah City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kalamunda City vs Mandurah City

Mandurah City beat Kalamunda City 2-1 in Western Australia State League 1 on May 24, 2025.

The match was played at Sutherlands Park in Perth.