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Mandurah City vs Gosnells City — Western Australia State League 1 2026

Mandurah City
Mandurah City
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gosnells City
Gosnells City
4/5/2025Western Australia State League 1Western Australia State League 1 · Round 3Poolmart Mandurah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Mandurah City61%
×Draw20%
Gosnells City19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mandurah City
2.13
Gosnells City
1.10

Mandurah City creates 94% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 22 away

creates per match

Mandurah City
2.00
Gosnells City
0.91

allows per match

Mandurah City
1.30
Gosnells City
2.27

finishing

Mandurah City+0.00on par
Gosnells City+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mandurah City ↓

Gosnells City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Mandurah City or draw
81%
Mandurah City or Gosnells City
80%
Draw or Gosnells City
39%

Winning margin

Mandurah City wins by 2+
38%
Gosnells City wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mandurah City 1+ goals
88%
Mandurah City 2+ goals
63%
Mandurah City 3+ goals
35%
Gosnells City 1+ goals
67%
Gosnells City 2+ goals
30%
Gosnells City 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mandurah City (draw refunded)
76%
Gosnells City (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mandurah City at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

Gosnells City away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.27 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mandurah City attack 2.00 + Gosnells City defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.13

Gosnells City attack 0.91 + Mandurah City defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Mandurah City scores more
61%
level
20%
Gosnells City scores more
19%

Mandurah City at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Mandurah City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Western Australia State League 1: Mandurah City 0–1 Gosnells City

Gosnells City beat Mandurah City 1-0 in Western Australia State League 1 on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at Poolmart Mandurah Stadium in Perth.