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Gosnells City vs Mandurah City — Western Australia State League 1 2026

Gosnells City
Gosnells City
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mandurah City
Mandurah City
6/14/2025Western Australia State League 1Western Australia State League 1 · Round 12Walter Padbury Reserve A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Gosnells City28%
×Draw20%
Mandurah City52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gosnells City
1.60
Mandurah City
2.24

Mandurah City creates 40% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 30 away

creates per match

Gosnells City
1.23
Mandurah City
2.07

allows per match

Gosnells City
2.41
Mandurah City
1.97

finishing

Gosnells City+0.00on par
Mandurah City+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gosnells City ↓

Mandurah City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Gosnells City or draw
48%
Gosnells City or Mandurah City
80%
Draw or Mandurah City
72%

Winning margin

Gosnells City wins by 2+
13%
Mandurah City wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Gosnells City 1+ goals
80%
Gosnells City 2+ goals
47%
Gosnells City 3+ goals
22%
Mandurah City 1+ goals
89%
Mandurah City 2+ goals
65%
Mandurah City 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Gosnells City (draw refunded)
35%
Mandurah City (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gosnells City at home — creates 1.23, concedes 2.41 · 22 matches

Mandurah City away — creates 2.07, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gosnells City attack 1.23 + Mandurah City defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.60

Mandurah City attack 2.07 + Gosnells City defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Gosnells City scores more
28%
level
20%
Mandurah City scores more
52%

Mandurah City at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Mandurah City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gosnells City vs Mandurah City

Gosnells City beat Mandurah City 2-0 in Western Australia State League 1 on June 14, 2025.

The match was played at Walter Padbury Reserve A in Thornlie.