Mandurah City 2–1 ECU Joondalup: Result & Stats

Mandurah City

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

ECU Joondalup

5/4/2024

Western Australia State League 1 · Round 6Poolmart Mandurah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Mandurah City61%

×Draw17%

ECU Joondalup21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mandurah CityExpected goals in this matchECU Joondalup

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.82

1.65

Mandurah City

2.82

ECU Joondalup

1.65

Mandurah City creates 71% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 11 away

2.00

creates per match

2.00

1.30

allows per match

3.64

creates per match

Mandurah City

2.00

ECU Joondalup

2.00

allows per match

Mandurah City

1.30

ECU Joondalup

3.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mandurah City+0.00on par

ECU Joondalup+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mandurah City ↓

ECU Joondalup →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Mandurah City or draw

79%

Mandurah City or ECU Joondalup

83%

Draw or ECU Joondalup

39%

Winning margin

Mandurah City wins by 2+

41%

ECU Joondalup wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mandurah City 1+ goals

94%

Mandurah City 2+ goals

77%

Mandurah City 3+ goals

52%

ECU Joondalup 1+ goals

81%

ECU Joondalup 2+ goals

49%

ECU Joondalup 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Mandurah City (draw refunded)

74%

ECU Joondalup (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mandurah City at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

ECU Joondalup away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mandurah City attack 2.00 + ECU Joondalup defence 3.64 → ÷2 → 2.82

ECU Joondalup attack 2.00 + Mandurah City defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Mandurah City scores more

61%

level

17%

ECU Joondalup scores more

21%

Mandurah City at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Mandurah City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff