ECU Joondalup 2–3 Mandurah City: Result & Stats

ECU Joondalup

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Mandurah City

7/27/2024

Western Australia State League 1 · Round 17Pentanet Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

ECU Joondalup46%

×Draw20%

Mandurah City34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ECU JoondalupExpected goals in this matchMandurah City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

1.99

ECU Joondalup

2.31

Mandurah City

1.99

ECU Joondalup creates 16% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 30 away

2.64

creates per match

2.07

1.91

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

ECU Joondalup

2.64

Mandurah City

2.07

allows per match

ECU Joondalup

1.91

Mandurah City

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ECU Joondalup+0.00on par

Mandurah City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ECU Joondalup ↓

Mandurah City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

ECU Joondalup or draw

66%

ECU Joondalup or Mandurah City

80%

Draw or Mandurah City

54%

Winning margin

ECU Joondalup wins by 2+

27%

Mandurah City wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

ECU Joondalup 1+ goals

90%

ECU Joondalup 2+ goals

67%

ECU Joondalup 3+ goals

40%

Mandurah City 1+ goals

86%

Mandurah City 2+ goals

59%

Mandurah City 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

ECU Joondalup (draw refunded)

57%

Mandurah City (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ECU Joondalup at home — creates 2.64, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

Mandurah City away — creates 2.07, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ECU Joondalup attack 2.64 + Mandurah City defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.31

Mandurah City attack 2.07 + ECU Joondalup defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

ECU Joondalup scores more

46%

level

20%

Mandurah City scores more

34%

ECU Joondalup at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "ECU Joondalup will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff