Mandurah City 1–1 Dianella White Eagle

Mandurah City

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dianella White Eagle

6/22/2024

Western Australia State League 1 · Round 12Poolmart Mandurah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Mandurah City40%

×Draw23%

Dianella White Eagle36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mandurah CityExpected goals in this matchDianella White Eagle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.56

Mandurah City

1.66

Dianella White Eagle

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 22 away

2.00

creates per match

1.82

1.30

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Mandurah City

2.00

Dianella White Eagle

1.82

allows per match

Mandurah City

1.30

Dianella White Eagle

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mandurah City+0.00on par

Dianella White Eagle+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mandurah City ↓

Dianella White Eagle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Mandurah City or draw

64%

Mandurah City or Dianella White Eagle

77%

Draw or Dianella White Eagle

60%

Winning margin

Mandurah City wins by 2+

21%

Dianella White Eagle wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Mandurah City 1+ goals

81%

Mandurah City 2+ goals

49%

Mandurah City 3+ goals

23%

Dianella White Eagle 1+ goals

79%

Dianella White Eagle 2+ goals

46%

Dianella White Eagle 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Mandurah City (draw refunded)

53%

Dianella White Eagle (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mandurah City at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

Dianella White Eagle away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mandurah City attack 2.00 + Dianella White Eagle defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.66

Dianella White Eagle attack 1.82 + Mandurah City defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mandurah City scores more

40%

level

23%

Dianella White Eagle scores more

36%

Mandurah City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mandurah City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff