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Dianella White Eagle vs Mandurah City — Western Australia State League 1 2026

Dianella White Eagle
Dianella White Eagle
FT
2 – 1
Mandurah City
Mandurah City
3/23/2024Western Australia State League 1Western Australia State League 1 · Round 1Dianella Reserve 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Dianella White Eagle53%
×Draw20%
Mandurah City27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dianella White Eagle
2.33
Mandurah City
1.65

Dianella White Eagle creates 41% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 30 away

creates per match

Dianella White Eagle
2.68
Mandurah City
2.07

allows per match

Dianella White Eagle
1.23
Mandurah City
1.97

finishing

Dianella White Eagle+0.00on par
Mandurah City+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dianella White Eagle ↓

Mandurah City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Dianella White Eagle or draw
73%
Dianella White Eagle or Mandurah City
80%
Draw or Mandurah City
47%

Winning margin

Dianella White Eagle wins by 2+
32%
Mandurah City wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dianella White Eagle 1+ goals
90%
Dianella White Eagle 2+ goals
67%
Dianella White Eagle 3+ goals
41%
Mandurah City 1+ goals
81%
Mandurah City 2+ goals
49%
Mandurah City 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Dianella White Eagle (draw refunded)
66%
Mandurah City (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dianella White Eagle at home — creates 2.68, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

Mandurah City away — creates 2.07, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dianella White Eagle attack 2.68 + Mandurah City defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.33

Mandurah City attack 2.07 + Dianella White Eagle defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dianella White Eagle scores more
53%
level
20%
Mandurah City scores more
27%

Dianella White Eagle at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dianella White Eagle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dianella White Eagle vs Mandurah City

Dianella White Eagle beat Mandurah City 2-1 in Western Australia State League 1 on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Dianella Reserve 3 in Perth.